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US President Trump’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are creating a complex situation in Asia, particularly regarding Russian oil exports to India and China. While both nations initially resisted US pressure to halt purchases, early signs indicate a shift as companies begin to adapt and utilize “shadow fleets” and intermediaries to circumvent sanctions. India, balancing its energy needs and strategic ties with the US, is facing a particularly difficult dilemma. China, a key economic partner for Russia, is prioritizing its relationship with Moscow while attempting to manage potential US sanctions. The scale of these workarounds, including the expanding “shadow fleet,” remains significant, and the effectiveness of US enforcement will be a crucial factor. Ultimately, the impact of the sanctions on Russia’s oil revenue will be determined by how successfully these workarounds are utilized, creating an “opaque” situation with significant uncertainty.