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Despite nine months of diplomatic efforts, the US-Ukraine relationship has shifted, with Donald Trump seemingly moving closer to a potential, albeit ambiguous, deal with Russia. While initially threatening to supply Ukraine with US-supplied Tomahawk missiles, Trump now acknowledges the logistical challenges and the need to avoid escalation, aiming for a ceasefire. The situation is complex: Ukraine’s key positions remain tenuously held amidst a grueling summer offensive, and Ukraine is increasingly reliant on European military aid and drone technology. Trump’s recognition of Putin’s potential manipulation and the growing pressure on Russia due to battlefield failures and economic difficulties suggest a changing dynamic, with Putin now facing questions about his next strategic move. Ultimately, the deal hinges on a ceasefire and a shift in the conflict's momentum, with Ukraine leveraging its newfound technological advantage.